Stratfor emails discuss how Mossad infiltrated businesses and a global nonprofit organization. Ta Nea reports that the Greek Pasok party purposefully inflated the budget deficit in 2009. Cables from Mexico are reported to have predicted the decline in Mexico’s oil production and USG concerns. Stratfor reported on Venezuela’s declining oil production. A former Blackwater director was a key Strlatfor informant.

Subject index

Cablegate and the Gitmo Files^

Joseph Kony
The leader of the Lord’s Resistance Army, Joseph Kony (AP photo).

Wikileaks And Kony 2012: Does the U.S. Allow The Ugandan Government To Commit War Crimes?: The article notes that a 2009 cable makes clear that the Ugandan People’s Defense Forces (UPDF) was “not allowed to use U.S. intelligence for operations that would violate the law of armed conflict, unless the U.S. gave the UPDF some sort of permission to do so in advance.” The article also cites cables which shed light on a “positive, sometimes collaborative, relationship between the State Department and Invisible Children,” (the NGO which produced the Kony 2012 film) including their public outreach support for Operation Lightening Thunder.

The financial weakness of Petroleos Mexicanos (Pemex): A 2007 Wikileaks cable reveals that Jordy Herrera’s concerns and predictions on declining oil production in Mexico have held true five years later. The decline has produced a crisis that reduces Mexico’s GDP by an estimated 2.5%.

Mexico, about to become an oil importer: It was acknowledged in a Wikileaks cable that oil in Mexico had peaked and it was in the process of becoming an importer. Being the third supplier of US oil, the impact of the decline was a concern for US officials. Carlos Pascual stated, “Mexican officials have requested assistance in recent months the U.S. government on issues related to the implementation of the reform (oil) in October 2008.”

Andy Worthington: Guantanamo prisoners released in 2007 (part 3): Worthington continues his work on detailed biographies of all Guantanamo prisoners, using the leaked detainee assessment briefs in the Gitmo Files.

GI Files^

Greece and Turkey^

PASOK “Source” snitches on the 2009 deficit: A Ta Nea article describes how Stratfor’s Greek informer says the newly elected Pasok government purposefully inflated the budget deficit by paying some bills early, in order to throw all blame for economic problems to the previous government and get more assistance from international institutions. Although the source is described as highly credible, the information he conveyed was rated by Stratfor as “hearsay.” The article puts into context Stratfor’s reporting on the issue by explaining that a week before an email was sent (January 2010), Eurostat had issued a damning report about the 2008 Greek statistics analyzing three reasons why 2.5 billion euro worth of hospital expenditure should not have been included in the 2008 budget, as the figure was wrong and it should not have been allocated to a single fiscal year. Finally the article explains that a day before the e-mail was sent, Dominique Strauss-Kahn mentioned in an interview that the IMF representatives only visited Greece because this was requested by the Greek government. Whilst in the e-mail the Greek source commented about the IMF visit “assuming that they will be shown the correct books,” The article also describes claims that Karamanlis used the Fire crisis in Attica 2009 to call for early elections in order to avoid dealing with the spiraling economic situation.

The secret movement of the Turkish Islamists has tentacles everywhere: A Ta Nea article re-iterates Stratfor informers’ claims that there are families who act like agents of the pro-western Islamist Gulen movement. Such claims seem to be ideologically closer to President Gul and Foreign Monister Davutoglu rather than Prime Minister Erdogan and diametrically opposed to kemalists. The article describes Stratfor source’s statements about the movement’s founding father Imam Gulen and his growing influence within the police and the secret service. The movement’s followers might be as many as 8 million, Ta Nea suggests. And even in the army, their numbers might account up to 30% of the military. Stratfor Turkish sources number about 35 people including individuals very close to the prime minister Erdogan.

‘Neo-cons in the United States had the power, the AKP ezemezdi army’: Hurriyet journalist, described by Stratfor staff as a “left-leaning secularist” provides analysts with insight on politics. Upon describing the Turkish army’s strong stance in maintaining the status quo of the AKP he states, “Over-stepping is really a danger for the government here, but if the military decides to cross the line and go harsher against AKP, it will have to do it despite the US. As a NATO-member, I doubt they have the courage to do this.”

Turkey, 15 km inside the border from Syria to enter without permission’: Emails show how Turkey was planning to create a buffer zone across the border into Syria to pursue the PKK without the permission of Syrian authorities: “The source said that the Turks have readied 500 tanks for a limited invasion of northern Syria.”

Israel and the Mossad^

Israeli Agent: Mossad Claims Fictional Feats: In emails leaked from Stratfor, an Israeli intelligence agent revealed that Mossad makes false claims about assassinations in order to be perceived as “an … organization that terrorists should be afraid of.” In addition, it is asserted that Ilich Ramírez Sánchez (Carlos the Jackal) was never targeted by Mossad because “he was never a threat to the Israeli national security..” but instead “sold information he collected on Arab countries also to Western [intelligence] agencies for good money”; and that the reason Carlos was arrested in 1994 by the French and Americans was to “protect him” from “a coalition of Arab [intelligence] agencies led by the Iraqis…on their way to assassin [sic] him.”

Fred Burton: Mossad Stealing Companies’ Secrets: According to emails leaked from Stratfor, Mossad has infiltrated a global non-profit organization called The Society of Competitive Intelligence Professional (SCIP), which claims to be “the global organization of choice for professionals engaged in competitive intelligence and related disciplines.” In the emails Fred Burton, Stratfor’s vice-president of counter-terrorism, said “There is a MOSSAD [sic] operative under business cover stealing other companies’ secrets from this group…”, along with agents from Chinese intelligence, although no Americans since “…CIA can only infiltrate an American company with witting knowledge of the American company.” Burton goes on to discuss how difficult it is for the US to insert “Nocs” (Non-cover operatives) as plants in foreign businesses, and suggests a few approaches by which this might be accomplished.

Hamas Terrorist Killed in Dubai Once Dressed as Orthodox Jew: This article summarizes the contents of a number of interesting emails from Stratfor about the Middle East, the issuing of US visas to “former Niger Delta militants to study courses related to oil and gas and engineering”, hacking attacks on US satellites (possibly by China), a leader of the Black Panther movement in the US and the presence of al-Qaeda sympathizers in “sensitive jobs in vital industries that could be the target of terrorist attacks” in the UK. The title refers to one of the emails which contained an article from Der Spiegel on Mossad’s assassination of Mahmoud al-Mabhouh, chief weapons negotiator for Hamas, who at one time disguised himself by dressing as an Orthodox Jew.

US involvement^

SCG CEO and former Blackwater director was a key Stratfor source: Al Akhbar reports email correspondence between Stratfor and James F. Smith, the former director of Blackwater and current Chief Executive of SCG International. In his emails, Smith said that the US Congress had asked SCG to be in touch with Syrian opposition so they could guage how to enact regime change and for that mission also claimed to be getting air cover from US Congresswoman Myrick. Smith became a major source for Stratfor, providing intelligence on Libya while the company was involved in contracts to “protect Libyan National Transitional Council (NTC) members and train Libyan rebel fighters after the implementation of the no-fly zone in March 2011.” Other emails say that Smith gave intelligence on missing surface-to-air missiles and was involved in the killing of Muammar Gaddafi.

The “black box” of the big crisis on Wall Street: A series of Stratfor emails discuss a meeting involving US treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and hedge fund manager John Paulson, where it was agreed to let the Lehman Brothers collapse. Kevin Stech informed analysts, “There are talks on of splitting into 2 entities, a “good” bank with salable assets, and a “bad” bank that will sit there and hold the bag of worthless subprime and alt-a backed MBS’s and other shaky derivatives.”

International relations^

Stratfor reports on Chavez power structure and declining oil production in Venezuela: McClatchy newspapers writes on a Stratfor report which said that Chavez’ removal would be a “significantly destabilizing event for the country be “significantly destabilizing event” for Venezuela because of the power structure Chavez had put in play. The report also mentions Venezuela’s deteriorating oil production, and claims this is due to lack of investment by the state: “Without serious and technologically adequate investments of tens of billions of dollars the industry faces a slow and inevitable decline.”

Stratfor reports on potential consequences of a military strike on Iran

Stratfor researcher reported that ISI feared Taliban takeover of Afghanistan

Impact and Reactions^

Stratfor reports Gülen explanation: Fethullah Gullen made a public statement denouncing Stratfor analyst claims to be “utterly baseless and a detailed product of fantasy”. One email by the analysts noted a string of arrests of journalists stated, ” the movement has become recently pretty controversial due to some arrests of journalists who were writing books about Gulenist infiltration into police service.”

“They were not accounted for at all”: The article describes the response of [Minister for the Environment, Energy and Climate Change] Giorgos Papakonstadinou [former Minister of Finance in 2009 under the Giorgos Papandreou government] to the Ta Nea article about the revision of the 2009 deficit figures, based on WikiLeaks. Papakonstadinou claims that the report stating that debts of previous years had been added into the deficit figures of 2009 was in error and explains in detail his side of the story. The article also re-iterates his claim that under the [previous] Karamanlis governement, hospital debt was not accounted for in detail but was estimated at 500 million a year and that explains how the Pasok gov. faced hospital debts of 6.5 billion by 2009.

Indian Olympic Association and Indian government ask Dow Chemical to be removed as sponsor of London Olympics; activists threaten boycott